Micromanaging Pakistan
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Shakir Husain
Richard Holbrooke is back and this time it's to look at the refugee crisis as a result of the Swat operation, meet with the folks he needs to, and generally earn his keep. By the looks of it Mr Holbrooke spends as much time in Pakistan as President Zardari, and definitely much more time than ex-president Musharraf. Maybe we should just give him a Pakistani passport to make his life easier at the immigration counter? Pakistanis have come to view Richard Holbrooke as an uncle who flies in from 'abroad' bearing goodies for the kids in the entire family. But Mr Holbrooke also has an alter ego. Every Pakistani knows that the fun uncle who lives in Toronto, Dubai or Saudi Arabia also has a really annoying wife. Mr Holbrooke also has to play the role of the aunty in this case. As the uncle he comes bearing gifts like night vision binoculars, helicopters, and anti-insurgency treats. Oh and Uncle Holbrooke, thank you for the 200 million dollars. Much appreciated. But then he also needs to go and meet Nawaz Sharif, and smattering of politicians, various other 'elites' to remind them to 'play nice' so that the job can be done. Not to mention spend time with the one hundred or so ministers that we are blessed with by the PPP government. It's a dirty job but somebody's got to do it.
The Obama administration is doing just what every other American administration has done when it comes to Pakistan; only this time it is not so subtle. The playbook remains the same. Engage with the government, but also ensure that the bets are hedged when it comes to the opposition. Given the US interests in the country at this critical juncture nobody can blame them. But what happened to subtlety? By flying in monthly Mr Holbrooke is not inspiring a lot of confidence in the Pakistani government. It gets worse with the leaks back in Washington DC where the media is conveniently fed little nuggets to break stories with. Each leak gives the rightwing in Pakistan an 'aha' moment and at the next talk show appearance the 'evidence' is unveiled. The usual conspiracy theories about warm water ports, nukes under threat, and America's evil designs are ultimately paraded out. What America needs is a lower profile in America when it comes to decision-making and a higher profile when it comes to humanitarian assistance, infrastructure development, and capacity-building.
The Yanks would be wise to take a page out of the Saudi playbook. The head of Saudi intelligence usually flies in at night, bangs a few heads, rubs a few noses, kisses some cheeks, delivers the message, ensures comprehension, and then leaves. If the message needs to be reinforced, it's usually done when ministers, MNAs, politicos, and all and sundry hit the Holy Land for some spiritual R&R. Granted that America doesn't have Mecca nor the proximity, and it is quite a bitch to get a US visa; but everyone who's anyone has a child in the United States studying somewhere. Wouldn't that be a perfect time to knock some heads? Given the recent junket to DC where senior ministers were enjoying the fruits of their labour in stretch limos and partying till the break of dawn, it would have been a perfect setting for an intervention over a few cold ones. While no one in the media will even squeal when the Saudis are leaning hard on local politicians, an American envoy is the subject of many hours of airtime. As my school counsellor told me, "life isn't fair. The sooner you get used to that fact the easier it'll be." The Saudis and the Americans will never be judged by the same standards in Pakistan. The Saudis are seen as 'brothers' even though Pakistanis are treated badly, cannot become citizens, and cannot own property in the Kingdom. The Americans, despite the fact that Pakistanis can and do become citizens and can own property, are seen as the root of all our problems. This is a perception problem which the state will need to do something about. It's a function of money, expertise, and commitment. Difficult but not impossible. But the rules of engagement have to change.
The perception that most Pakistanis have that the United States calls the shots in Pakistan is both correct and incorrect. But who is to blame for this perception being partially credible? Actually both the Americans and the Pakistanis are to blame for this. The Americans for their crass approach to diplomacy and for not quite understanding subtlety as a concept. Pakistanis should shoulder the blame across party lines for running to DC every time there is a crisis and asking to be bailed out. Every Pakistani leader since Ayub has asked the United States to intervene on their behalf at some point or the other; and this government is no different. Even politicians and players of the game who are not in power lobby hard in DC. The lawyers' movement and now the attempts to get the 17th Amendment both landed up in power circles in Washington DC. Ultimately, it is neither in the interest of the Americans to micromanage Pakistan nor is it in the interest of average Pakistanis for their affairs to be managed from so far away by people who know so little about us. America has had and continues to have interests in the region as do several other countries, and it will continue to pursue them. It is for us to decide how we're going to engage with these attempts, and what is in our best interest. Since the last four decades Pakistanis have been hearing emotional gibberish from our leaders when it comes to our interests and objectives. It is time to have an honest debate about our interests, our goals, our objectives, and how we plan to achieve them.
