What is 99942 Apophis?
13 April 2036 is the possible date on which it is expected that an Asteroid named 99942 Apophis is headed our way to strike earth. Question is can our earth be saved from this future catastrophe? Till now scientists are content that there is only probability of 1 in 45000 of colliding with earth, Clark Chapman, a senior scientist with the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo says that there is probability of 1 in 10000 times. It is very low probability but still most experts agree that it should be observed closely year after year so that its future path can be located.
Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey from Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. Apophis belongs to a group called the "Aten asteroids", asteroids with a semi-major axis less than one astronomical unit. This particular one has an orbital period around the Sun of 323 days, and its path brings it across Earth's orbit twice on each passage around the Sun. When first discovered, the object received the temporary name 2004 MN4. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942. Apophis's length was estimated at 415 m (1350 ft); a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga in 2005 is 350 m (1150 ft).
Some scientists are of the view that we should be prepared incase this asteroid collides with earth. Are we prepared for this collision? yes we are ready…!.In 2008, The Planetary Society, a California-based space advocacy group, organized a $50,000 competition to design an unmanned space probe that would 'shadow' Apophis for almost a year, taking measurements that would "determine whether it will impact Earth, thus helping governments decide whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit." The society received 37 entries from 20 countries on 6 continents.
The commercial competition was won by a design called 'Foresight' created by SpaceWorks Engineering. The craft is planned to be launched in 2012.To keep mission costs low, the winning design, Foresight, proposes a simple orbiter with only two instruments and a radio beacon at a cost of $137.2 million. The spacecraft would launch aboard a Minotaur IV, leaving Earth sometime between 2012 and 2014, to arrive at Apophis five to ten months later. It would then rendezvous with, observe, and track the asteroid. Foresight would orbit the asteroid to gather data with a multi-spectral imager for one month. It would then leave orbit and fly in formation with Apophis around the Sun at a range of two kilometers.The spacecraft would use laser ranging to the asteroid and radio tracking from Earth for ten months to accurately determine the asteroid's orbit and how it might change.sensors on the probes would measure the seismic effects of successive probe impacts, a creative way to explore the interior structure and dynamics of the asteroid.
In addition to the unmanned Planetary Society project, NASA's Project Constellation is researching a manned Orion Asteroid Mission, with 99942 Apophis being one of the potential destinations of the mission. The mission would use the Orion spacecraft to land astronauts on the surface of the asteroid. Such a mission would provide valuable testing for a later manned Orion Mars Mission.Scenarios for Dealing with Apophis,a paper presented by Donald B.Gennery at the 2007 Planetary Defense Conference held in Washington, DC, outlines a number of proposals for deflecting Apophis including gravitational tractor, kinetic impact, and nuclear bomb methods.One very important question to know is that what will be the intensity of the impact of 99942 Apophis with Earth on 13 April 2036.According to NASA assessment it would be equal to 880 megatons.The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3-10 megaton range, The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.
The exact effects of any impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometers, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects.According to calculations areas such as Southern Russia, across the north Pacific then right between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, Northern Colombia, Venzuela and Africa can be affected. It is estimated that in Venezuela it can cause 10 million causalities and in West coast of US it can Tsunami.
13 April 2036 is the possible date on which it is expected that an Asteroid named 99942 Apophis is headed our way to strike earth. Question is can our earth be saved from this future catastrophe? Till now scientists are content that there is only probability of 1 in 45000 of colliding with earth, Clark Chapman, a senior scientist with the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo says that there is probability of 1 in 10000 times. It is very low probability but still most experts agree that it should be observed closely year after year so that its future path can be located.
Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey from Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. Apophis belongs to a group called the "Aten asteroids", asteroids with a semi-major axis less than one astronomical unit. This particular one has an orbital period around the Sun of 323 days, and its path brings it across Earth's orbit twice on each passage around the Sun. When first discovered, the object received the temporary name 2004 MN4. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942. Apophis's length was estimated at 415 m (1350 ft); a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga in 2005 is 350 m (1150 ft).
The commercial competition was won by a design called 'Foresight' created by SpaceWorks Engineering. The craft is planned to be launched in 2012.To keep mission costs low, the winning design, Foresight, proposes a simple orbiter with only two instruments and a radio beacon at a cost of $137.2 million. The spacecraft would launch aboard a Minotaur IV, leaving Earth sometime between 2012 and 2014, to arrive at Apophis five to ten months later. It would then rendezvous with, observe, and track the asteroid. Foresight would orbit the asteroid to gather data with a multi-spectral imager for one month. It would then leave orbit and fly in formation with Apophis around the Sun at a range of two kilometers.The spacecraft would use laser ranging to the asteroid and radio tracking from Earth for ten months to accurately determine the asteroid's orbit and how it might change.sensors on the probes would measure the seismic effects of successive probe impacts, a creative way to explore the interior structure and dynamics of the asteroid.
In addition to the unmanned Planetary Society project, NASA's Project Constellation is researching a manned Orion Asteroid Mission, with 99942 Apophis being one of the potential destinations of the mission. The mission would use the Orion spacecraft to land astronauts on the surface of the asteroid. Such a mission would provide valuable testing for a later manned Orion Mars Mission.Scenarios for Dealing with Apophis,a paper presented by Donald B.Gennery at the 2007 Planetary Defense Conference held in Washington, DC, outlines a number of proposals for deflecting Apophis including gravitational tractor, kinetic impact, and nuclear bomb methods.One very important question to know is that what will be the intensity of the impact of 99942 Apophis with Earth on 13 April 2036.According to NASA assessment it would be equal to 880 megatons.The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3-10 megaton range, The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.
The exact effects of any impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometers, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects.According to calculations areas such as Southern Russia, across the north Pacific then right between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, Northern Colombia, Venzuela and Africa can be affected. It is estimated that in Venezuela it can cause 10 million causalities and in West coast of US it can Tsunami.
